Sunday, 17 February 2013

What is Great?

I watched a few snippets of President Obama's recent State of the Union address, which were broadcast on TV. I perhaps could have read the transcript on the Internet but to be honest I'm not interested. I don't intend to imply any disrespect towards the President but his speeches, like most politicians', regardless of nationality, are usually full of political spin and hype. There's often plenty of aspirational and inspirational stuff, which is unlikely to be achievable and definitely not in the timescale of a presidency. For some reason there is one phrase in Barack Obama's speech that I can't forget, even though it's not unique, that's when he referred to the United States of America as "the greatest nation on earth". What does that mean?

There are differences between American English and my native tongue, English English, but I believe the definitions of Great and therefore Greatest, are the same. The Oxford English Dictionary definition is:

'Much above average in size, intensity, ability, quality, or importance'.

The USA certainly has the largest economy in the world when measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but when that GDP is divided by the size of the population to give GDP per head it slips to number 11 in the world. OK so let's look at some other measures like the Human Development Index (adjusted for inequality), Prison Population per 100,000 population, Emission of Carbon Dioxide and Defence Spending, where the USA's world ratings are 12, 1, 2 and 1, respectively. The Human Development Index adjusted for inequality is a measure of years of schooling, life expectancy and income levels adjusted for inequality in the distribution of health, education and income. It is a measure of the quality of life and you can see the USA has plenty of room for improvement. The other three measures indicate that compared with the rest of the world, the USA has the highest percentage of the population in prison, is the second highest producer of carbon dioxide and has the highest level of defence expenditure. It's not a status that any country should be proud of and the high level of defence spending would probably qualify as the 'Greatest' in the world for military and therefore destructive, capability!

I don't want this blogpost to focus solely on the USA. There is no doubt that the President of the United States of America is an important world leader, Barack Obama and other world leaders should be extremely influential in shaping the planet's future so their perception of 'greatest' is pertinent. There are some real crunchy issues facing the planet at the moment, like poverty, wealth distribution, climate change, energy and food supplies, all of which are interrelated and cannot, therefore, be picked off one-by-one for remedial action. So in my opinion leaders should not be competing for national 'greatness' but working together for global improvement and sustainability. But how?

The problem with any political system, particularly democracy, is the politicians are short-term focussed. Political parties and individuals within the parties, have as their number one priority, re-election. This usually means the extent of any 'vision' is limited to no more that four years and typically one to two years. The issues facing the world today result from actions that were initiated decades ago, indeed sometimes centuries ago. If you don't believe me, think of it from a personal perspective. You are where you are today because of an action initiated by your parents at a time equal to your age plus nine months ago! But you are also where you are today not just because of the actions of your parents but as a consequence of millions (yes millions!) of actions that post-date and pre-date your birth. Life is highly complex and can rarely be modified by simple short-term policies, unless of course those short-term initiatives are compatible with a much longer-term vision. The planet's problems are not going to be solved by any nation's president or prime minister but on the other hand, those leaders who take global issues seriously and initiate appropriate actions to move society in the right direction, even with possible adverse effects on their own political careers, could arguably be described as 'great'. Such great leaders, particularly from the richer nations, could be following a course against their own national interests if, for example, poor under-developed countries benefit at the expense of the developed world, which, for the developed world leaders, could be political suicide.

To conclude, I would argue that the leader of a nation who uses his or her influence to benefit the planet and particularly by addressing some of the aforementioned important issues, i.e. poverty, wealth distribution, climate change, energy and food supplies from a global perspective, qualifies as a great leader, which, in my opinion, is more important than aspiring to (or claiming to) lead a great nation. Indeed, competitions between nations to achieve greatness could be the major impediment to the achievement to global improvement and sustainability - think globally!

Friday, 8 February 2013

Sensing the Storm

The dedication in my latest book is: "To Bella, Blondie and DC - my pets and special friends." The dogs Bella and Blondie, who we think are sisters, and the cat, DC, were rescued from the streets by my wife, Sandie. There are too many street dogs and cats in Turkey and Sandie with her truly caring concern for all creatures great and small, could, if space and finance allowed, take in all manner of waifs and strays. I have to admit I was reluctant to take on board our current family but four years later I have no regrets. They are truly special friends with their own different and very engaging personalities. I know there has been plenty of research to determine whether animals have personalities but from my experience, I have no doubt that they do have individual characters and behaviours, so what's that if it's not personality? Maybe it should be referred to as dogality or catality!

This blogpost is about Bella and specifically about her fear of thunderstorms. Bella is the most sensitive of our three adopted waifs. At a first encounter she looks tough and if put to the test by an unwanted intruder, she probably would be. But she can get very upset from certain occurrences, particularly inclement weather. In the area of Turkey where we live, we enjoy long hot summers, with very little rain, from May through to October. Most of the rain comes during the winter months and although I don't keep records, more often than not, rain comes with a thunderstorm. I would be guessing but I suggest 70% of all storms are thunderstorms. Sometimes they can be powerful and destructive and as an example, we are now on our third ADSL modem router in as many years! Two were damaged by overhead lightning strikes and the latest one survives purely because whenever there is the slightest chance of a thunderstorm, we disconnect the mains and telephone connections!

Although I am not a great fan of thunderstorms, I can't resist measuring the 'flash to bang' time in order to estimate the distance of the storm from my location. If you count the seconds between the lightning and the thunder, then divide by five, it will be a good approximation for the number of miles. Divide by three if you prefer kilometres. If the storm is more than about 12 miles away, the thunder is unlikely to be heard but the lightning should still be visible. For very distant storms, the lightning will not be visible. Now although I'm sad enough to amuse myself with these calculations, I don't think Bella would have the same interest!

We first observed Bella's fear of thunderstorms shortly after she joined us as a young puppy at our previous property. We were out one day and she was in the garden with Blondie and DC. Whilst we were away there was a horrendous thunderstorm with fork lightning that was almost overhead. The pets could shelter on the balcony and sure enough after we rushed home, that's where we found Blondie and DC, but initially we couldn't find Bella. At our previous property, our solar water heating panel was mounted on the ground in the garden, which is not the most common location as roof-mounting is far more effective. We eventually found Bella cowering and shaking under the solar panel. That's when we first discovered her problem, which she hasn't grown out of. Blondie and DC, by contrast, do not like thunderstorms but don't show any signs of fear - different personalities!

In our current property, there is no way Bella could retreat to the solar panel, because it's on the roof! But she does have a retreat that we have named 'Bella's Shelter', which is a coffee table in the lounge. She hides under it during every thunderstorm. In fact, her built-in 'early warning system' prompts her to take shelter before the first sound of thunder. So how does she sense the storm well before the flashes and bangs? I have a theory.

When there is an electrical discharge in air, like lightning, it creates ozone, which is a strong-smelling toxic form of oxygen. Ozone is present and can be smelt on the London Underground, created by the sparks on the train tracks. It has long been known that dogs have very powerful smelling capabilities and my theory is that Bella can smell the ozone from the lightning well before it is visible to humans. It is only a theory and I haven't conducted any controlled experiments but I have observed Bella's raised head and twitching nose on some occasions and just prior to her scampering off to her shelter. Now there could be other smells associated with thunderstorms or maybe acoustic signals that dogs can detect before humans but, whatever, Bella's 'early warning system' has never let her down and hopefully I won't lose any more ADSL modem routers!

Sunday, 3 February 2013

The Powerful Pill

Recently there was news coverage of the story of an American soldier, Brendan Marracco, who has survived after losing all four limbs in the Iraq war and had recently been given a double-arm transplant. He had also received bone marrow from the deceased donor of his arms, which should help the body accept the new limbs with minimal medication - truly amazing! Operations of this type are evidence of how medical science has progressed over the past century. The human body is so complex that nobody could truthfully claim to understand it fully, yet through intensive scientific research, trial and error, advances continue to be made in the cure of diseases, repair of injuries and replacement of body parts.

Although the surgery that was performed on Brendan Marracco was extremely skilful, it was based on techniques and medical care that were all well-researched and proven, with documented evidence to support it. Yes it could have gone wrong but I am sure the medical team would have justifiably assumed a high probability of success. This 'orthodox' approach to surgery and medicine contrasts to what is known as 'Complementary and Alternative Medicine', CAM, which includes homeopathy, acupuncture as well as the administering of all manner of pills and potions, which are not supported by evidence-based research. Now you might ask, does it matter? If it works don't knock it? But the real question is, how do we know it works?

I am slightly embarrassed to admit that I have been taken in by the alternative medicine brigade. I went through a period when I suffered from mouth ulcers and I decided to try a homeopathic cure. I can't remember the name of the active ingredient, but did it work? Well in time the ulcers did disappear but ulcers do go eventually - I don't know anyone who has had them for life! Around the same period of time, my dog had a tooth abscess. He hated the vet so I tried a homeopathic remedy, which didn't work! I took him to the vet and despite the trauma for the dog (and me!) a tooth was removed and subsequent 'orthodox' medication led the dog back to good health. Another CAM experience for me was when my ears became partially blocked with wax and a friend recommended a local 'specialist' who was proficient in the use of Ear Candles. I went to her surgery and underwent treatment that consisted in placing special candles in each ear (not at the same time!), which when lit I was told would suck the impurities out of ear. Sure enough, at the end of the 'operation' each candle was opened up and I was shown a familiar waxy orange substance, which must surely be earwax. Did I feel better? Well strangely enough for a while I thought there was an improvement but not for long. Eventually I went to an 'orthodox' doctor who syringed my ears and I left his surgery with perfect hearing - job done!

After I had overcome the embarrassment of those personal experiences, I did my own research on the methods employed, firstly homeopathy. What I couldn't understand was why the strength of homeopathic remedies is apparently inversely proportional to the amount of 'active' ingredient contained in the pill, so the weaker the dose, the more effective the cure! But what's more, a concentration of, for example, 30C, is a dilution of one part per million million million million million million million million million million!!!! This means there will be no molecules of the active ingredient left in the dose you get. So if an active ingredient is a cure for a disease, but it is administered in a pill that doesn't contain it, how can it possibly do the job?! I rest my case!

In the case of the Ear Candles, I discovered two important features of these 'wonder cures'. Firstly, if you light the candle and hold it over some dust, you will see little evidence of any suction. Secondly, if after it has burnt down, you cut it open, you will find a waxy orange substance, despite the fact it hasn't been in anyone's ear! Again, I rest my case!

So why do these CAM procedures, pills and potions work with some people? Well, I think most 'orthodox' practitioners recognise the 'placebo effect', this is the phenomenon of a patient's perceived medical improvement following treatment with an inert substance, such as a sugar pill. Tests on placebos have yielded interesting results. Apparently blue sugar pills are more effective than white ones and an injection of salt water gives even better results! So maybe CAM procedures and pills are merely different forms of placebos. Whatever, I will conclude with a quotation from the French philosopher, Voltaire - "The art of medicine consists in amusing the patient while nature cures the disease".

Saturday, 26 January 2013

Great Minds

I like Eleanor Roosevelt's quote:

"Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people."

Just because a prominent person makes a statement, doesn't mean you have to agree with it. After all, it was her opinion. But to me the quote does ring true for reasons that I will now explain with this short story.

Jack was invited to attend an interview for a new job, the Manager at a large DIY store, which was part of an international group. He was young, ambitious and with relevant retail experience but not at managerial level. He had also recently completed a BA in Business Studies through intensive part-time study. So at the age of 32 he was looking for a real career challenge. His interview was to take place at the headquarters of the DIY chain in Amsterdam but at his own initiative, he decided that two days prior to the interview, he would visit the store in Antwerp, where the vacancy had arisen. He would go as a 'customer' purely to get a feel for the environment. He arrived at the store and asked one of the sales assistants for help to purchase an electric drill. The assistant said he knew nothing about drills, so pointed him in the direction of another assistant. The lady was busy labelling items to put on the shelf and told him to wait until it was convenient for her to take a break. She then showed him a range of drills within the price range €30 to €150. He proceeded to ask her questions about the specifications of the different drills, to which she responded rather curtly that she wasn't an expert on drills and neither could that be expected of her on the money that she was earning. She pointed out that she was busy doing her labelling, couldn't spend any more time with Jack so he should make a decision but she did tell him that if the drill developed a fault in the first year, it was covered by the manufacturer's guarantee. Big deal and it wasn't a very good shopping experience for Jack!

When he returned home his partner was keen to know how he'd got on. Here are three possible responses depending on Jack's personality.

Small-minded Jack.

"I walked into the store , tried to find a sales assistant to help me buy a drill, which was difficult, but I eventually found this jerk who wasn't interested and pointed me in the direction of his colleague. Well this bitch was even worse, too busy to deal with me immediately and when she finally did give me some of her precious time, she basically just took me to the area where the drills were displayed and told me she knew nothing about the specifications. The decision was mine. She really was a prize prat and if I had my way, I would sack all the dickheads in that store and start from scratch."

Average-minded Jack.

"I walked into the store and eventually managed to get a sales assistant to help me buy a drill. Her knowledge on drills was very limited so I ended up with no real guidance. It wasn't a pleasant shopping experience and if a better competitor moved into the area, the store would really suffer."

Great-minded Jack.

I didn't have a good shopping experience purely because the assistants that I encountered were not sufficiently knowledgeable or motivated to assist. But I think this provides a tremendous opportunity for a change programme. If I get the job of Store Manager, my number one priority will be staff training and development. I would start by sitting down with each member of staff, explaining that my vision for the store is for it to be the best shopping experience in town. I would describe how it was going to be a tough, challenging and exciting journey for the team to achieve the vision. Then through a process of individual appraisals, each employee's strengths and weaknesses would be explored and appropriate training and development programmes would be initiated."

Great-minded Jack's enthusiasm was infectious and he could see his partner was also excited. She asked Jack if he would be expressing these views at the interview. Jack's response........"You bet!"........and he did........he became the Store Manager.

So there you have it, small and average minds are very narrow and focussed on the past, identifying problems rather than solutions. Great minds think about the future looking for solutions and opportunities.

I like Eleanor Roosevelt's quote!

Saturday, 19 January 2013

I Wish I Could Sprechen Sie Deutsch

Danke Schön Bitte Schön Wiedersehn........I Wish I Could Sprechen Sie Deutsch.

This is an extract from the lyrics of a song released by Eddie Wilson in 1961. It is a song about the desire and difficulty to learn German. Maybe I should compose a similar piece based on my current struggle to gain proficiency with the Turkish language. It's very difficult - çok zor - perhaps because it is hard to get an old brain to adapt to an entirely new set of linguistic 'rules'. The main problem being whatever 'rules' appear to exist, they are invariably broken. I'm getting there albeit very slowly - çok yavaş - but I will persevere.

As I navigate my way through the maze of ambiguities and inconsistencies of the Turkish language, I realise that there are far more imperfections in English and how my command of English is perhaps not as good as I thought it was! This is particularly apparent when I participate in Internet discussion forums, which attract an international audience. It has been said that Britain and America are "two nations divided by a common language", a quote attributed to Winston Churchill, George Bernard Shaw and Oscar Wilde! Whoever said it, I can empathise with the sentiment as many of my discussion points have been misinterpreted by American participants, so what chance do non-English speakers have?

There have been attempts to introduce more logical languages. Esperanto was created by Dr Ludwig Lazarus Zamenhof in the late nineteenth century, his aim being to foster harmony between people from different countries. Although it is the most widely spoken constructed language in the world, the current estimate of Esperanto speakers is between one and two million people, which equates to less than 0.03% of the world's population. I would suggest this is insufficient to help improve relations between different nationalities. A more recently introduced constructed language is Loglan, which was developed in 1955 by Dr James Cooke Brown. It was the first among a number of languages known as logical languages. But Loglan has fewer followers than Esperanto and despite it's 'scientific' origin, there are no native speakers.

So in spite of attempts to introduce perfect languages, the old idiosyncratic languages survive and evolve. The evolution is, compared with other evolutionary timescales, quite rapid. For example, grandparents often have difficulty communicating with their grandchildren and vice versa. Keeping abreast of linguistic changes is difficult, particularly given most humans' natural resistance to change. The idiosyncrasies and lack of stability of human languages means that trying to learn a language by using an existing language as a 'reference' and developing translation 'rules' is fraught with problems. But that's exactly how I have been approaching my Turkish learning process, aided and abetted by my technical and analytical bent. One-to-one correlations between English and Turkish simply don't work, which is not surprising when you look at how the two languages have developed, almost independently of each other.

My teacher is very good and extremely patient, which he needs to be because my memory retention is sorely lacking. Beyond the basics he has taught me a considerable amount (but certainly not all) of Turkish grammar, which he believes will provide me with the 'foundation' and 'building blocks' of language construction. I agree with this approach but the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. Between lessons my Turkish is limited to a few short conversations each day interspersed with continuing to use my mother tongue. I now believe the next stage needs to be total immersion! I am not yet sure how I will immerse myself but I do know swimming is much more fun in the water!!

Watch this space and you will know I have cracked it when I publish a blog in Turkish........İnşallah........Hopefully!

Sunday, 13 January 2013

On Probation

Probation
1. The release of an offender from prison on condition of good behaviour under supervision.
2. A period of training and testing a new employee.

So says the Little Oxford Dictionary and Thesaurus, which I sometimes refer to, perhaps nostalgically, rather than resorting to Google. The second definition can be loosely applied to the Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition government in the UK. When the two political parties came together after the General Election of 2010, no political party had a clear majority and the coalition was seen as breaking the mould of British politics. Will it work? Well to a certain extent it's on probation. It is, of course, an anathema to the political ideologists who see clear distinctions between left, right and middle-of-the-road politics and believe a fudged combination of two or more competing political philosophies will never work. The counter to that argument is that societies are best managed by the people with the requisite skills and experience, regardless of the colours of their political rosettes.

The coalition government took the reins of power at a time when the UK, in common with many other parts of the world, was suffering from debt-driven economic woes to which the newly-formed government's response was a menu of austerity measures. In simple terms, the country is spending more than it earns and therefore has to tighten its belt particularly in the area of public expenditure. The latest target is privatising probation (definition '1' from the dictionary) through outsourcing many of the existing services. Although reduction in re-offending rates has been cited as the reason for change, cost savings will probably be high on the priority list and if the truth be known, could well be the real motivation for change. Now I am not an expert on probation services but I have a good friend who is, having spent much of his working career as a probation professional. So over the years I have gleaned an appreciation of some of the salient features of the organisation. My current interest is the business model that the 'probationary' government is intending to implement for its probation services, because my long commercial career has been largely responsible for my avid interest in business models - sad isn't it?!

I am strongly of the opinion that any business is a complex system with inputs, outputs and relationships between them that are not always easy to understand. Indeed organisations evolve and do not always behave in ways that were originally intended. Stafford Beer is credited with introducing the acronym POSIWID - the Purpose Of a System Is What It Does. As an example, the UK's Probation Service's 'purpose' is what it does and if that is not in accord with what society expects of it, then it will have to change. But let's take a step back because the Probation Service is a system within a much bigger system, i.e. society and its role in the community would be totally redundant if there weren't criminals! So isn't the government focussing on the symptom rather than the underlying problem? If there were no offenders then re-offending rates, would no longer be a consideration. Clearly my utopian fantasy is unlikely to become a reality but the point I am making is that only by considering the totality of the problem can we visualise a model that is likely to have a purpose which is more closely aligned to what we would desire in a perfect society. So if the 'probationary' government believes that carving up the Probation Service into a large outsourced entity and a much smaller insourced bit, is a step towards solving the nation's criminality problems, so be it. Personally I believe the 'probationary' government is perpetuating outdated business models that have failed miserably in other areas of the public sector. Someone once suggested to me that one sign of insanity is to keep repeating the same thing and expecting a different result! By repeating the 'offences' of previous governments, surely the 'probationary' (it's moved from definition '2' to definition '1') government is re-offending..........return to jail or plead insanity?!

Tuesday, 18 December 2012

You know........

The use of language has always fascinated me. We are born without it but relatively quickly we start communicating with those who speak the same language and what's amazing is the vast number of languages, dialects and accents that exist and show little sign of becoming obsolete despite the 'shrinking' of the world through the access to technology. Languages get modified and through shared words, eg 'iPad', do show some signs of convergence but attempts to introduce universal languages , like Esperanto, have failed miserably.

My early experimentation with language, or rather accent, came at the age of thirteen when I moved with my parents from London, UK, where I was born, to Manchester, UK, which was where my father had taken on a new job. Changing schools at that age is never easy for any child and isn't helped if you don't speak the same as your peers. I tolerated the jibes about my southern accent for a while but gradually, over a period of a couple of years, I changed my accent to an almost perfect Mancunian drawl. If I'd chosen an acting career, I might have got a part in Coronation Street! At the age of eighteen, higher education took me to the south of England. I retained my accent for a while, which some members of the opposite sex seemed to find attractive! But gradually I reverted to my native tongue. To this day, I don't have difficulty mimicking any UK regional accent and I am usually able to determine which part of the UK someone comes from by listening to his or her accent.

So what my early years taught me was just how easy it is to modify the way we speak. In fact children who move to a different country at a young age usually have no difficulty speaking a completely different language very quickly. If only it was that easy when you get older. I now live in Turkey and I soon realised that I wouldn't learn Turkish just by exchanging pleasantries with the local shopkeepers, so I decided to embark on one-to-one lessons. It's hard! I console myself by assuming it is difficult to teach a new language to an old brain but I am not sure that's true, particularly when I see old brains learning new languages and many more picking up trendy lingo - which brings me on to 'You know....'

Throughout the ages there have been trendy words and phrases. 'No way', 'look' and 'huge' are examples and most recently 'you know'. I am not going to name names but 'you know' is prevalent amongst UK and US politicians although certainly not exclusive to political circles. Here's how it might be used:

"You know society needs strong leadership at times like this and you know a good leader needs a vision. You know visions don't grow on trees and the electorate deserves better........"

As illustrated, 'you knows' can sometimes be used more frequently than full stops! The Urban Dictionary has a rather graphic way of defining 'you know':

"Something that jackasses say EVERY FUCKING OTHER WORD! You know! You know! You know! No I don't know cocksucker, why don't you fucking tell me!"

Picking up trendy words and phrases by mature people shows how adaptable the brain is at ages when you might think it would be more set in its ways. So there's hope for me yet with my aspiration to learn Turkish! But YOU KNOW as my Turkish improves there is a danger YOU KNOW that I might YOU KNOW get out of touch with trendy English lingo and thus lose a source of knowledge for future blogs....... YOU KNOW!! :-)