If I knew then what I know now.

I don't know if it's a symptom of approaching life's twilight years, but I do seem to spend some of my spare thinking time reflecting on my history. It's amazing how much I can recall from the dim and distant past, for example the names of friends at primary school and yet I very often forget what I did last week! The functioning of the brain and in particularly it's memory, is fascinating and will perhaps feature in a future blog but on this occasion I want to share some of my past experiences and in particular the application of that well-worn phrase, 'If I knew then what I know now.'

OK, you might be thinking this is just a 'with the benefit of hindsight' feature but that is not my intention. Closer to the mark would probably be 'growing older and wiser', but again I don't want that to be the sole message retained by the readers. I am only just coming to grips with the complexity of life and understanding some of the previously-missing pieces of life's jig saw puzzle. So yes, I am wiser now than I was, say, forty years ago and my current knowledge base should mean that I am better-equipped to deal with some of the challenges that I faced in my youth, but I don't have the energy now to tackle some of the key issues of yesteryear that moulded my journey through life. It's the determination of life's journey that really does interest me because it is affected by every choice, every action, right or wrong. Who is to judge the correctness of our actions, what is right, what is wrong, what is the truth? We are where we are because of the decisions that we took, over which we had varying degrees of control, and because of the decisions of others, over which we had varying degrees of influence, and a whole host of day-to-day evolutionary events, over which we have absolutely no control or influence. Against this background of chaotic uncertainty, why do I think the past could have benefited from me knowing then what I know now?

At this point I am going to extol the virtues of systems thinking, which I can best describe by John Muir's quote: "When one tugs at a single thing in nature, he finds it attached to the rest of the world". So systems thinking is all about interconnectivity. Interconnection not just in space but also in time. Peter Senge in his book The Fifth Discipline, said: "Cause and effect are not closely related in time and space". I believe this truism is very often ignored at all ages but is most likely, through experience, to be appreciated in later years. Certainly that is true in my case and how I wish my systemic thinking could have played a prominent part on my earlier years, in family, social and business affairs.

Clearly there is more to systems thinking than understanding the complexities of cause and effect, but when I look back at some of my bad decisions, a common thread of impulsiveness, quick fix, instant gratification....etc, seems to run through some of my bad 'life choices'. That said, and this is where I am in danger of contradicting the entirety of this blog thus far, I am perfectly happy with my lot. I want for no more emotionally or materially and I am where I am because of all my past good and bad decisions! So what could have been different? Well maybe I might have got to my current paradise quicker! Who knows, I could explore a plethora of hypotheses until the cows come home.

At the beginning of this blog I said I would share some of my experiences. Well here's a couple, one from the world of business and another from my social life.

In the commercial world, those who run businesses are driven by the 'bottom line', doing everything possible to maximise short-term profitability, often at the expense of longer-term performance. 'If I knew then....' I wouldn't have succumbed to short-term pressures unless I could reconcile in my own mind there were no other adverse ramifications, in time or space. Who knows what impact that would have had on my career, but I still believe it is wrong to do things you know are wrong.

In my social life, selfishness and short-term gratification have been my major vices coupled with being too easily influenced by others. The student excesses of boozing, smoking and partying (but never drugs) went on far too long, way beyond college days, and had a negative impact on some social and family relationships in my mid-life years. 'If I knew then....' I would have questioned my social habits much earlier and tried to live a more balanced and altruistic life. We share this planet with billions of humans and other species so for a balanced society we surely can't always put ourselves first.

So that's it guys, I don't know what my hypothetical different life would have done for me or others and I'm more than happy with what I've got. But I'm hopefully not at the end of the road yet and so maybe I can practice what I preach in the concluding chapters of Alan's biography!

Blueprints and Recipes - the Clock and the Cake

I have a clock and I want to know how it works because there's always been an enquiring mind in me. So I take it to pieces and lay all the component parts on the table. I ought to add that it's quite an old clock with cogs and springs, all powered by a wind-up mechanism. I sit and ponder what has been revealed and establish a mental model of how the wound spring drives the second, minute and hour hands, through a series of gears, to provide a picture of time.

So that was an interesting exercise but the whole is worth more to me than the sum of the parts and having increased my knowledge base, I'm now keen to reassemble the clock - but how?! Well I might have remembered how the parts fitted together, perhaps even taken notes. Alternatively the original manufacturer of the clock might be able to provide me with a blueprint for the clock, which would list all the components and explain how they fit together. The point is that it is possible to take the clock to pieces, find out how it works and then reassemble it. The reassembly can be achieved with the original blueprint or indeed it is possible to create a new blueprint by recording the component parts and the steps needed to reconstruct the clock.

Now let's look at a completely different scenario. A friend provides me with a sample of his freshly baked carrot cake, which I decide to try shortly afterwards with a cup of coffee on my balcony. The sun is shining, I feel relaxed and ready to sample my newly acquired culinary delight.......delicious!!!! I'm not a professional cook but I do like to dabble and this carrot cake is simply the best I have ever tasted, so I'm keen to reproduce it, but how? I decide to ask my friend for the recipe and he obliges. There's no reason why he shouldn't really because the recipe is contained within a well known cook book so it's well and truly in the public domain. I haven't completely finished my friend's carrot cake and I reserve a bit to compare with my own creation when available. I bake my cake, do the comparison and guess what.........there's a difference! My friend's cake is definitely tastier than mine.

Unlike the clock, it is impossible to take the cake to pieces and establish exactly how it was made. I used a recipe but a recipe is NOT a blueprint and the difference between a clock and a cake is the difference between complicated and complex. I collect my freshly-made loaf of bread from a local bakery every morning. It's warm, delicious but always slightly different! The shape, texture and hardness of the crust all show variations from day to day. I am sure my friend would admit to his carrot cakes varying to some degree each time he makes one. On the other hand, the clock will always be the same each time I disassemble and reassemble it provided that I follow the blueprint. So the difference between the clock and the cake is not only complicated vs complex but also certainty vs probability. I will talk more about certainties and probabilities in a future blog.

Life is full of blueprints and recipes and from my experience, we all too often confuse a recipe for a blueprint. In other words we assume that a particular course of action will lead to a certain (rather than a probable) outcome. Let me give you an example - The Miracle Diet, a blueprint for successfully losing weight. There are loads of them on the market! So you weigh-in, collect your special dietary pack and pay a hefty fee for all this 'expert' advice. Maybe things go well initially and you lose a few kilos but one year later you're back to square one. Body weight is a function of a number of variables including input (food) and output (exercise). But it is a complex, rather than complicated, matter and I defy anyone to understand it fully and to be able to predict individual outcomes to dietary plans. The plan itself is a recipe not a blueprint.

I could cite many examples of recipes that are presented as blueprints in life, including politics, financial services, personal well-being, macro economics, sport........to name but a few. Interestingly, rarely are blueprints misrepresented as recipes. So if ever you are asked the question 'What's the difference between a clock and a cake?', you'll know it's not the lead-in to a joke!........or is it?