Shale Gas & Fracking - Week 4

It's the final week of the MOOC and it's a shame because I am thoroughly enjoying it but all good things come to an end!  This week we have learnt about regulation, communities and public engagement.  There's little point in me using this blog post to repeat the course material, I would rather summarise my closing thoughts on the issue of fracking to society.  I will admit that my views have changed somewhat during the period of the course.  Opinions amongst those who are directly engaged or have an interest in fracking, appear to be polarised - for or against.  At the beginning of the course I was against and now that we are approaching the end of the course, I'm still against.  So what's changed?  Well, three weeks ago I was very dismissive of pro-fracking views, whereas I now have a greater understanding of the pro-fracking arguments.

Professor Sarah O'Hara provided an excellent presentation on the perceptions of shale gas where she summarised some of the results from The University of Nottingham shale gas survey, which has been running since March 2012.  One of the most interesting results, from my point of view, was that although there has been a decline in the yes vote since the Balcombe protests, still over 50% of the population are of the view that shale gas extraction should proceed in the UK.  Public opinion really is split and in my opinion, that's not surprising when you view the issue from the perspectives of UK national energy security, an alternative to 'dirty' coal and a 'bridge' to a low carbon economy.  If you look at fracking from these three perspectives in isolation and within the framework of a well regulated and therefore, hopefully, safe environment, there is almost (but not quite!) a compelling argument to proceed with fracking for shale gas.  In my opinion, however, where the argument is flawed is when you look at the bigger picture and in particular, the urgent need to tackle climate change by drastically reducing carbon dioxide emissions and well before the timescale of a 'bridge' to a low carbon economy.  So I believe we need massive global investment into renewables, or even 'safe nuclear', now rather than pursuing a diversion into shale gas.

That's it!  I've had my say.  Thanks to Sarah, Mat and Wil, together with their supporters and all the guests, for a really first class MOOC, which has been a fantastic learning experience for me.  It's been great! 

Shale Gas & Fracking - Week 3

Well it's week 3 and the time's flying.  This week we are learning all about the environmental considerations.  Oh boy, there are plenty of conflicting opinions amongst the experts on just how clean, or conversely how dirty, shale gas is.  The arguments are continuing to be well debated on the course.

There is a lovely phrase, which is "the bridge to a low carbon society".  A few words that make the extraction of shale gas by fracking seem such a logical thing to do.  The argument goes something like this.  Energy emissions from shale gas are about 40% cleaner than coal, so let's use shale gas as a replacement for coal on our journey (hence the 'bridge') to something even cleaner.  Sounds good!  But then along came a guy called Howarth who looked at fugitive emissions (leakages of methane gas during fracking going straight into the atmosphere) and he concluded that when viewed on a timescale of 20 years, the greenhouse gas footprint for shale gas is at least 20% greater and perhaps more than twice as great as coal.  Wow!!

Well of course Howarth really did rock the boat until Cathles offered his response and argued that Howarth's analysis was "seriously flawed" because he had overestimated the fugitive emissions.  So who's right?  We don't know because there isn't enough evidence to make a judgement.  Now that in my opinion is the real worry.  The 'bridge' is beginning to feel a bit wobbly.

As well as greenhouse gas emissions, we also learnt about other concerns like seismic activity, water pollution and the possible harmful effects on health.  There is a tremendous amount of data but really no firm conclusions because many of the findings were by inference rather than evidence-based.  I haven't trawled through all the comments that have been posted, but it would appear the views are very polarised for or against fracking.  That said, there are many well-thought-through arguments to support each stance.  Have I changed my anti-fracking views?  No, but I do feel I am becoming much better informed.

Shale Gas & Fracking - Week 2

I'm now into week 2 of the Shale Gas & Fracking Course.  This week we are focussing on the economics and energy security of shale gas development.  The material and quality of tuition continue to be excellent.  Although I admit to being opposed to fracking, I came into the course determined to become better informed and take a serious look at both sides of the argument.  Well so far my views have not changed.  The information provided on the world's energy mix and specifically the actual usage for 1990 to 2012 and the forecast for 2012 to 2035, illustrated a predicted growth in energy requirements and a continuing dependence on fossil fuels.  Probably not surprising as the data were provided by BP!  My comment on the forecast is that it would appear to be an extrapolation of the past with a small increase in absolute terms of renewable energy.  Maybe that's what will happen if we continue business as usual, but as far as I'm concerned that is a totally unacceptable scenario.  We should determine what energy mix there needs to be by 2035 if the planet has a chance of survival and then take positive actions to achieve our objectives.

As well as some very informative material on natural gas and how it's used, we were also provided with an analysis of energy security, as well as a positive and a negative view on the economics of shale gas.  The debate will continue with an online discussion later this week.  I don't want to repeat the course material in this blog post, so I will conclude this post with my personal view based on the debate so far.  I feel that no matter how the economic argument is presented, the financial justification for fracking is extremely flakey.  But that aside, I think the cost benefits or penalties are immaterial.  We really shouldn't be perpetuating the combustion of fossil fuels.  In my opinion, shale gas will not provide a bridge to a low carbon economy, as claimed by some of those in favour, but an excuse for world political leaders to delay further the actions that are already overdue, to go green.

So, that's almost half the course completed and it's going too quickly!  Watch this blog for my next update.

Shale Gas & Fracking - Week 1

I have commenced the Shale Gas & Fracking: the Politics and Science MOOC (Massive Open Online Course), delivered by The University of Nottingham for FutureLearn.  Shale gas is a hot topic in the news right now and I felt this course would be an ideal follow-on to the Climate Change MOOC that I completed last year.  I will be interested to see if the knowledge that I gain from the course will change any of my views on fracking.  At the moment, I strongly believe that fracking is perpetuating the combustion of fossil fuels and therefore, exacerbating global warming and climate change.  In my opinion, the effort and resources directed towards fracking could be better spent developing green energy, for which the technology is available but frankly, the political will seems to be lacking.  So that's what I feel now!  It will be interesting to see the views that I express in my Week 4 blog post at the conclusion of the course.

This week I have learnt about the geology of shale gas, how it is extracted by hydraulic fracturing (fracking), the story so far from the developments in the USA and the locations and resource estimates in the UK.  I have learnt that there is a big difference between what might be present (resource) and how much can be commercially extracted (reserve).  So far the UK is in the exploration stage for shale gas and oil and it is too early, therefore, to determine its commercial viability.

So that's the story of my course so far.  I'll keep you posted!