My interest in football started about seven years ago, strongly influenced by a good friend who is an ardent lifelong Manchester United fan. My expertise in systems thinking spans several decades, starting with a career in systems engineering and becoming very interested in holistic systems thinking over the past 20 years in various roles. I enjoy watching football from the comfort of my armchair and I don’t support any particular club. I might, however, have a temporary allegiance to one of the teams on a match-by-match basis. I tend to favour the underdogs! What fascinates me, and increases my enjoyment of the game, is viewing football from a systems perspective.
When discussing systems thinking, I often cite the weather as an archetype of a complex adaptive system that exhibits deterministic chaos. There is a strong focus on the weather right now, particularly in the context of climate change, and at last the realisation that whilst we can’t control it, we can hopefully influence the direction of travel, e.g. managing anthropogenic carbon emissions to reduce global warming to safe levels. In the world of football, I believe the same principle applies, outcomes can at best be influenced but not controlled, which is why a team’s performance rarely responds in the way that is expected with short-term ‘fixes’, e.g. appointing a new manager!
The football world generally, and any match specifically, are examples of a complex adaptive system, which can also be chaotic as well as complex. While teams strive for structure and predictability, the unpredictable nature of human behaviour, environmental factors, and non linear interactions ensure that chaos is an ever-present part of the game. This balance between order and disorder is what makes football so dynamic and captivating. I’m not sure, however, that the lack of predictability is fully appreciated by pundits when analysing the performance statistics.
I love stats because I’m a numbers person. But simple metrics are not the best way to model and understand complex scenarios. They can be valuable tools for identifying trends and probabilities, but they cannot guarantee outcomes due to the sport’s inherent unpredictability. If we take, for example, the key performance indicators of Expected Goals (xG), Possession Stats, Shots on Target, Pass Completion Rates, Defensive Stats (Tackles, Interventions), these are usually published on sports apps whilst games are in progress. It’s interesting to compare the stats with the results and all too often a win is not supported by a set of ‘good’ stats. For example, high possession is viewed by many pundits as ‘good’ because it implies strong control of the game, but when Leicester won the Premier League title in 2015/16, they averaged 42.4% possession, the lowest of any Premier League champion in recorded history.
Stats in football are powerful tools when used in context, helping with performance analysis, recruitment, and tactics. However, their abuse often stems from ignoring qualitative factors, overemphasising surface-level numbers, and misrepresenting performance through cherry-picking or small samples. A balanced approach that combines statistical insights with expert interpretation is crucial for meaningful analysis.
Despite all that……..it’s a great game………Come On You Reds!!!!
