Enough of the generalities, let's describe a thought experiment to consider some of the issues associated with a real-life problem - climate change. Now I have to admit that up to a few years ago, I was a climate change sceptic. I accepted the fact that climates were changing but I believed that the phenomenon was more to do with long-term cyclical weather changes, rather than human-created emissions of carbon dioxide. However, as the evidence for carbon dioxide emissions being a major cause of climate change increased, I changed my views. Indeed, I am now of the opinion that governments need to assign a high priority to the green agenda with the possible negative impact on economic growth.
At this point, I am going to return to thought experiments and in particular one entitled 'Sustainable development' in Julian Baggini's book. The Copyright Act prevents me from reproducing this particular thought experiment and I have highlighted it purely as a reference. It has also been the inspiration for this post. Here's my own version with a slightly different twist.
Smartfil Limited was a medium-size family-run business that produced water filtration systems for developing countries. It had a unique design and demand for the products was high, which had led to 24/7 production on a shift system. It was a major employer in a small town in Scotland where it was based. But there was one facet of this successful business that particularly irked the owner-directors. Smartfil Limited was not eco friendly. The production processes used a huge amount of electricity produced by generating stations powered from fossil fuels. Also, when there were any interruptions to the power supply, Smartfil Limited used petrol-driven on-site generators to keep production going. The directors decided it was time to go green. They devised an elaborate system of power generation, employing a water mill that was to be constructed by a river that ran through the grounds of the factory, two windmills and a vast array of photoelectric panels. Having obtained all the necessary permissions, the capital expenditure was estimated to be £10 million, but also there was likely to be a three-month transition period when production could be reduced by 50%. To cut a long story short, the company proceeded with the project but with disastrous consequences. The disruption to production caused staff lay-offs and many key employees left the area to find work elsewhere. The countries purchasing the filter systems faced real hardships due to the supply not meeting the demand, which was eventually overcome by finding alternative suppliers. The repayments and interest on the loans for the capital expenditure, pushed up the cost of production and led to higher prices, which meant products were less competitive. The maintenance costs on the new equipment were higher than anticipated and the cost of 'green' electricity was 50% higher than electricity from fossil-fuelled power generators, which again had a direct impact on the price of the Smartfil product. Three years later Smartfil Limited went out of business.
This simple thought experiment summarises the dilemma that governments have when going green. That's not to say that nothing should be done about global warming but it's not as simple as just replacing 'dirty' energy sources with 'clean' energy sources. There are consequences and very often unintended consequences. Thought experiments maybe a way of discovering previously unintended consequences.
Happy thinking! 😊
Note: I have used a company name, Smartfil Limited, in this blog post, which I couldn't find as a reference to a company in a Google search. However, the thought experiment is a work of fiction and any resemblance to an actual organisation is purely coincidental.
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