This week the course focussed on the impacts of climate change on human systems and in particular, the built environment and food security. In recent years, I have developed a strong interest in systems thinking, which in simple terms means understanding by putting together, rather than understanding by taking apart. Systems thinking requires a comprehension of not just the component parts of the system but also the interdependencies. Well as I proceed through this course, it is quite obvious to me that climate change cannot be separated from everything else that affects our planet. The subject matter for this week reinforced that view. When trying to appreciate the complexities of the planet, there are no simple system models and therefore it is necessary to break it down into subsystems that are easier to understand. That said, we cannot ignore the subsystem interdependencies. This week we started to explore the interdependencies between the climate and human existence.
Urban heat islands are interesting and probably something that we are all aware of. I live in a rural environment in Turkey and about 2 km from a small town. I notice when I drive from my home into town, the display on my dashboard of air temperature can increase by as much as 2 deg C on the journey. So that is a very good local example of an urban heat island. We learnt about the factors that create the temperature differential and how the majority of deaths during heat waves occur in high buildings at night. The deaths are usually from dehydration and hyperthermia. Now one thing I notice when I travel between the UK and Turkey in the summer months, is that 25 deg C in an English town can feel far more uncomfortable than, say, 35 deg C in a Turkish town and my view is that the difference in comfort can at least in part be explained by the contrasting construction methods in the two countries. In the Mediterranean region of Turkey where I live most of the buildings are white or light-coloured and many of the urban roads are paved in light-coloured material, rather than having a black tarmac surface. So maybe if the Northern European region is going to experience more frequent heat waves, their city and town planners should look to Southern Europe and Asia Minor for best building practices!
The course material on food security was extremely thought-provoking, because it highlighted the strong interdependency with climate change, which before embarking on this course, I hadn't considered. Since the 1960s the world's agricultural industry has been subjected to what is known as the Green Revolution. There has been a huge improvement in efficiency by the increasing use of fertilisers, herbicides, pesticides and fungicides, as well as more mechanisation and vast areas of land devoted to monocultures, i.e. single crop varieties. The efficiencies might be improved but the impacts of potential crop failure are far more serious. When a vast area is hosting a single crop, then in the event of pests or pathogens attacking the crop, there can be a dire food shortage. A classic historical example is the Irish potato famine in the 1840s, which led to a million people dead from starvation and a similar number emigrating to the New World. Climate change is causing the movement of pathogens to new geographical areas, threatening species of crops that were previously unchallenged. Needless to say, scientists are on the case, looking at ways to increase the resistance of crops to disease. What strikes me about this problem, however, is that it is exacerbated by two social factors. Firstly, a rapidly increasing population and therefore a corresponding increase in the demand for food. Secondly, a situation in the world today, where obesity sits alongside starvation - Gandhi said: "There is enough for everyone's need [in the world], but not enough for everyone's greed." Both these problems have solutions. Population increase can be brought back to a sensible level by birth control and obesity could be significantly reduced by sensible diets. But how do these simple solutions become realities? Well I suppose it's by education. Now this subject could become another blog post in its own right and I could be accused of straying from the subject of climate change. But it brings me back to my opening remarks on systems thinking. The issues that are being raised by climate change, including this week's focus on human systems, show how interconnected nature is.
It's been another great week on the Climate Change MOOC and I will conclude this post with a quote from John Muir: "When one tugs at a single thing in nature, he finds it attached to the rest of the world."
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