Wise after the event.

As I get older, I think I get wiser and one of the ways I check my increased wisdom is to think back to major events involving decision-making in my life and consider how I would tackle those issues now.  These are interesting thought experiments but in most cases inconclusive because I can never be sure what the outcomes of hypothetical courses of action would be.  As an example, I love the story of the man who was explaining to his friend why walking under a ladder was unlucky.  He tells the tale of when he walked under a ladder and shortly afterwards found a £10 note on the pavement.  His friend wanted to know why he considered that to be unlucky, to which he responded that if he hadn't walked under the ladder he might have found two £10 notes!  We never know the outcomes of alternative actions that we haven't taken.

I am not driven by the day-to-day pressures of corporate activities these days, which gives me time to think.  When I experiment and try to apply today's knowledge and experience to yesterday's problems, as well as tackling the here-and-now issues, there are certain principles that guide me.  These are, in no particular order:

Alternative Options

Cause and Effect

Cost vs Benefits

Beware of the Anecdotal

Alternative Options

We all have mind sets, personal ways of doing things, which might might take us down a particular path when evaluating situations.  But sometimes we need to evaluate evidence in dispassionate and objective ways.  One way of doing this is to list alternative hypotheses, then consider alternatives without being too quick to rule out options because of personal prejudices.  Try not to be too certain about anything!

Cause and Effect

Here's a statement that I always think sounds a bit highfalutin - Correlation does not imply Causation.  When the cockerel crows at daybreak, is it the crowing that causes the sun to rise or the rising sun that stimulates the cockerel to crow?  That's quite an obvious example of what is the cause and what is the effect, although don't be too quick to eliminate alternative hypotheses!  In general, there is a danger of assuming causations without sufficient evidence.

Contingency Plans

Expect the best.  Prepare for the worst.  Capitalise on what comes.  We can all have plans but our objectives don't always come to fruition, so it's worth having contingency plans and even if the contingencies don't materialise, make the best of whatever happens.

Cost vs Benefits

Cost vs Benefit analyses are useful and don't have to be about money.  It is helpful to weigh-up the pros and cons of any situation to assist decision-making.

Beware of the Anecdotal

My friend's mother had a terrible pain in her neck but she rubbed Mumbo Jumbo Cream onto the affected area and within three days the pain had gone.  A lovely story but what does that say about Mumbo Jumbo Cream?  It might have helped cure one person's neck ache but that's not really sufficient data to to establish the cream's credentials.  Even the plural of anecdote is not data!  You need properly conducted medical trials to support or disprove anecdotal evidence.

These principles help me to assess my past decisions but what about the future?  Am I wiser now than I was in the past?  Epicharmus was right - "The wise man must be wise before, not after, the event."