Don't take the tiger for granted.

There are some things in your life that always seem to have been around.  For me, one of them is the tiger.  It is the largest cat species, with body length up to 3.3m and weighing up to 306kg.  That's big!  But it's not just the knowledge of the existence of the animal that has been with me for as long as I can remember, it's also the use of the word 'tiger' as a name or brand - Tiger Woods and Tiger Beer being just two examples.  It is synonymous with strength, skill and majesty.  Despite being regarded by some as dangerous, wild tigers will normally avoid interactions with humans.  Attacks can, however, be provoked, for example when they are hunted or looking after their young.

My recent interest in tigers was prompted by information from the World Wildlife Fund (WWF).  According to the WWF, there are now around 3,200 tigers left in the wild.  There are more than that number in captivity.  Over the last century the population has reduced by over 95%.  Tigers used to roam over most of Asia, from as far west as Turkey.  But now they are only found in isolated areas in India, Nepal, China, Russia, Malaysia and Sumatra.  The main reasons for the population decline are habitat destruction, habitat fragmentation and poaching.  The main reasons for poaching have been the high prices paid for body parts, particularly the skins, and the belief by many people in China and other parts of Asia that some tiger parts have medicinal properties, including pain killers and aphrodisiacs.  Some of the claims of those practising traditional Chinese medicine are as follows:

Tiger claws cure insomnia.

Teeth treat fever.

Fat treats leprosy.

Nose leather cures bites.

Bone treats rheumatism and arthritis.

Eye balls treat epilepsy and malaria.

Tail is used to cure skin diseases.

Bile cures meningitis.

Whiskers cure toothache.

Brain treats laziness and pimples.

Penis is used in love potions and aphrodisiacs.

Dung or feces treats boils, hemorrhoids and alcoholism.

Western medical experts tend to discount all the claims but still the practice goes on.  In my opinion, one of the reasons the traditional practice is perpetuated is because it is 'traditional'.  The adjective 'traditional' almost becomes a seal of approval, a guarantee of success, because so many people have benefitted from (or been fooled by!) the traditional remedies.  I suppose when the traditional cures involve the the use of herbs, then there is little or no damage to the environment, but when it means slaughtering tigers, already an endangered species, it beggars belief.

The other major threat to tigers is habitat loss.  Information from WWF UK States that only 7% of the tiger's historical range is still available to them.  The rest has been cleared and gone to agriculture, forest clearing, roads, etc.  This has forced the tigers to inhabit isolated pockets of land thus impeding their breeding characteristics.

So unless action is taken and fortunately WWF and others do have programmes to save tigers, an animal which is known by all could become extinct and relegated like the dinosaur to the history books.  Please don't take the tiger for granted!

The Impotent President

The current shutdown of the US government seems bizarre to me and many other observers, particularly given the ramifications to the global economy.  What makes the whole saga surreal is the fact that the potentially very dangerous consequences are inflicted by mankind on mankind.  Not with guns and tanks, but purely by elected representatives trying to gain political advantage and being allowed to hold the world at ransom.  It is interesting, however, to note how this particular news item, although still unresolved, is sliding down the scale of importance when measured by its position on international news bulletins.  It is almost as if the world is becoming bored with the antics of American politicians and also somewhat embarrassed for President Obama who is demonstrating his political impotence, which is inherent in the American constitution.  For many major issues he is an impotent President.

The US constitution makes it possible for different branches of government to be controlled by different parties and in the current standoff each party can claim to be representing the will of the people.  This is the way the Founding Fathers wanted it to be, so that there would be a system of checks and balances.  They divided the US government in order to keep it limited and to ensure major decisions are the result of negotiation and compromise.

Now let's compare the US form of government with the United Kingdom's parliamentary democracy.  This form of democracy was described by the former Lord Chancellor of the UK, Lord  Hailsham, as an elective dictatorship.  As a hypothetical example, if something like Obamacare was in the election manifesto of a UK political party and that party won the election, then it's parliamentary majority would allow Obamacare to become law.  Now the first-past-the-post electoral system means that a strong majority on the House of Commons does not necessarily mean the majority of the electorate have voted for the ruling party.  At the last election in the UK, the Conservatives gained 36% of the votes and 47% of the seats in parliament, their current overall majority was created by forming a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.  This was the first coalition government formed outside wartime or a national emergency since 1918.  So in general, the elective dictatorship leads to strong decisive government, particularly if, as is normally the case, there is not a need for a coalition.

So what system of the two mentioned democracies, is better?  Well no system of government, democracy or otherwise, is perfect.  Winston Churchill said:

"It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried."

In my opinion, it's one thing for governments to make decisions that affect solely their national interests, but when national decisions have a global impact, then that's a whole new ball game.  Hypothetically, imagine if the Polish government was procrastinating over a decision that could have a serious impact on the global economy.  Do you think the USA would just be a passive observer and wait for whatever will be?  I don't think so!

Looking at the bigger picture, in my view globalisation is testing to the full the world's current territorial governance.  Just how independent are so called independent states?  I am not questioning the cultural ties within countries and regions of the world but political responsibility needs to take on a much broader perspective than national boundaries.  The guy at the helm of the national ship cannot be allowed to be impotent because if that ship sinks, so do the rest of us.  Wake up America!

Business School Crap

As a part time management consultant it is perhaps heresy for me to suggest the teachings of business schools could be described as crap, but I do think business men and women should view with suspicion some of the latest thinking emanating from business academia.  Why do I say this?  Well throughout my own business career I was an instant convert to many of the various business fads, tools and techniques that were vogue at the time, including Boston Consulting Group Matrix, Total Quality Management, Lean and Agile Manufacturing, Balanced Scorecards, Business Process Re-engineering, Best Demonstrated Practice, Value Stream Mapping........to name but a few.  Looking back, I realise now that I suffered from the indoctrination and therefore the businesses that I was part of, or later in my career running, could have suffered too.  That's not to say that managers shouldn't be analytical and some tools, including those mentioned above, can help to gain a better understanding of  business performance and develop strategies.  But it is important not to get carried away with a simplistic approach to business strategy that many protagonists recommend.

Any business is a complex chaotic system that has no predictability.  Also, because it is a system, it contains a daunting web of interdependencies, both internal to the organisation and external to customers, suppliers and the rest of the global community.  The internal dependencies are difficult to influence and impossible to control.  The external interdependencies are even more remote.  Now the business school solutions to these complex problems are often based on subdivision, breaking down the internal organisation into units, divisions and departments, whilst creating neat sub-contract-driven supply chains to 'control' the outside world.  I'm not saying that this is not the way to try to bring some sort of control and certainty to an uncontrollable and uncertain business environment.  But the mistake is to believe such a structure, together with a few business improvement techniques thrown in, is the panacea for success........it ain't!  In my opinion, it doesn't matter how many case studies you review, there are not common threads for success, or conversely, for failure.

I ask myself, if I'm not happy with what's on offer at business schools right now, then what am I proposing?  Well I believe that the talent we all need to develop throughout our lives is thinking.  We have to be able to apply different types of thinking to situations and in the complex world of business, there is rarely a formulaic approach.  It is also dangerous to become too obsessed with both measuring things that have happened and applying measurements to things that have yet to happen.  Let me explain with an example.  I like to watch the UK BBC programme 'Dragons' Den'.  This is where budding entrepreneurs present business cases to proven entrepreneurs (the Dragons) to try to get investment by one or more Dragons into their businesses.  The Dragons will inevitably explore 'the numbers', i.e. the sales and profit to date and the projected sales and profit usually over the next three years.  If the budding entrepreneurs don't understand, or worse still don't know, their numbers they will be crucified by the Dragons.  Whereas if they present a good set of numbers, they get a big tick in the box.  But in reality, the past numbers are history and the future numbers are pie in the sky.  There is generally an obsession with profit but in the words of Peter Senge:

"Profit for a company is like oxygen for a person....unfortunately most businesses operate as if their purpose is breathing."

So in my opinion, understanding business is part of understanding life, because each business is a sub system within life's system.  Now to get from that level to tangible day-to-day actions to improve business performance, will not unfortunately lead to self-contained simplistic processes.  There might be some simple processes  but they cannot be viewed in isolation of the whole.  You might create the most efficient typewriter factory on the planet, but if the world has moved on from typewriters and doesn't use them anymore, you have wasted your time and money.

Now if you have read this blog post and ended up confused, I am not surprised.  I haven't attempted to answer any questions but merely to issue a health warning on the misuse of management fads.  There are no standard prescriptions for business success and in the words of Dr Deming:

"

"Improvement is a process, and not a pill.

Thought Experiments

If you are interested in thought experiments, I recommend 'The Pig that Wants to be Eaten' by Julian Baggini.  It's a good read and I will be referring to it later in this post.  Thought experiments are, like scientific experiments, a means of imagining situations that are akin to real-life scenarios but can be 'tidier' than real life and therefore allow us to focus on the important issues.  A thought experiment is a tool that aids our thinking, it does not pretend to describe real life.

Enough of the generalities, let's describe a thought experiment to consider some of the issues associated with a real-life problem - climate change.  Now I have to admit that up to a few years ago, I was a climate change sceptic.  I accepted the fact that climates were changing but I believed that the phenomenon was more to do with long-term cyclical weather changes, rather than human-created emissions of carbon dioxide.  However, as the evidence for carbon dioxide emissions being a major cause of climate change increased, I changed my views.  Indeed, I am now of the opinion that governments need to assign a high priority to the green agenda with the possible negative impact on economic growth.

At this point, I am going to return to thought experiments and in particular one entitled 'Sustainable development' in Julian Baggini's book.  The Copyright Act prevents me from reproducing this particular thought experiment and I have highlighted it purely as a reference.  It has also been the inspiration for this post.  Here's my own version with a slightly different twist.

Smartfil Limited was a medium-size family-run business that produced water filtration systems for developing countries.  It had a unique design and demand for the products was high, which had led to 24/7 production on a shift system.  It was a major employer in a small town in Scotland where it was based.  But there was one facet of this successful business that particularly irked the owner-directors.  Smartfil Limited was not eco friendly.  The production processes used a huge amount of electricity produced by generating stations powered from fossil fuels.  Also, when there were any interruptions to the power supply, Smartfil Limited used petrol-driven on-site generators to keep production going.  The directors decided it was time to go green.  They devised an elaborate system of power generation, employing a water mill that was to be constructed by a river that ran through the grounds of the factory, two windmills and a vast array of photoelectric panels.  Having obtained all the necessary permissions, the capital expenditure was estimated to be £10 million, but also there was likely to be a three-month transition period when production could be reduced by 50%.  To cut a long story short, the company proceeded with the project but with disastrous consequences.  The disruption to production caused staff lay-offs and many key employees left the area to find work elsewhere.  The countries purchasing the filter systems faced real hardships due to the supply not meeting the demand, which was eventually overcome by finding alternative suppliers.  The repayments and interest on the loans for the capital expenditure, pushed up the cost of production and led to higher prices, which meant products were less competitive.  The maintenance costs on the new equipment were higher than anticipated and the cost of 'green' electricity was 50% higher than electricity from fossil-fuelled power generators, which again had a direct impact on the price of the Smartfil product.  Three years later Smartfil Limited went out of business.

This simple thought experiment summarises the dilemma that governments have when going green.  That's not to say that nothing should be done about global warming but it's not as simple as just replacing 'dirty' energy sources with 'clean' energy sources.  There are consequences and very often unintended consequences.  Thought experiments maybe a way of discovering previously unintended consequences.

Happy thinking! 😊

Note:  I have used a company name, Smartfil Limited, in this blog post, which I couldn't find as a reference to a company in a Google search.  However, the thought experiment is a work of fiction and any resemblance to an actual organisation is purely coincidental.

Secret Thoughts

I have always enjoyed reading but my choice of books has changed over the years.  During my student days, followed by my early career in engineering, which then led me into project and business management, my choice of reading material was technical and factual - no science fiction for me!  Later I developed an interest in philosophy - is that real or unreal?  Well the existence of philosophical theories is real, whether the theories bear any relationship to reality is what the philosophical debate is all about.  If there's one common thread through the majority of my past reading habits, it is that it has been hard work.  Engineering text books, business management and philosophical thinking, are all brain-pounding stuff, leaving little or no scope for allowing the thought processes to drift into oblivion.  It's a bit like writing this blog post! 😊

In more recent times, I have taken an interest in reading fiction.  At first it was difficult for me because I have a natural aversion to things that aren't real.  When Harry Potter became all the rage, I read one of the books just to see what all the fuss was about and I had to force myself to finish the story.  It bored the pants off me and I quickly gravitated back to non-fiction.  My recent reading matter has mainly been crime fiction, particularly books by John Grisham and Michael Connelly, which whilst being works of fiction, have plausibility, unlike Harry Potter.  Although I am not addicted to reading and probably can't justify owning a Kindle yet, I do find burying myself in a fictional story is particularly relaxing.  It takes your thoughts away from the here-and-now and can provide an experience that is probably akin to meditation.

To say that non-fictional books are factual is, in my opinion, a misnomer.  I have written two 'factual' books - 'The Oxymoron of Managerial Wisdom' and 'Food for Thought'.  The first, as the title suggests, attempts to destroy any suggestion that management is an exact science.  The second, is a collection of articles on various 'real' issues.  But both pieces are riddled with my own thoughts and opinions and, therefore, are open to questions and comments, which I welcome.  Fiction, on the other hand, is open to review but the stories cannot be questioned, simply because they are stories, not opinions related to facts.  I suppose that is why reading a fictional story is far more relaxing than reading opinions.  The reader's mind drifts into the story rather than continually questioning the validity of the content.

An aspect of an invented story that can be very powerful, is the author's prerogative to describe the thoughts of the fictional characters.  Now in real life, I don't know what you're thinking and you don't know what I'm thinking.  If I ask you what you're thinking, you may or may not tell me the truth, and vice versa.  But in the invented story, the author can describe a fictional character's thoughts and no one can dispute it........because it's fictional!  This, in my view, is another reason why reading a fictional story can be so relaxing, we don't question the thoughts of the characters.

Returning to real life, we spend most (or perhaps all)  of our time thinking and much less time communicating.  Of course, whilst we are communicating we are also thinking.  Part of the art of communicating is making assumptions on what the other party is thinking.  So when, for example, President Obama recently said Syria's use of chemical weapons was unacceptable and the USA would take military action against them, did he really THINK that was the correct response or was he just saying it for effect?  We will never know.  Only President Obama knows.  So our thoughts are truly secret.  I ask myself the question, if we knew what others were thinking, would the world be a better place?  Wow, I think that question should be regarded as rhetorical.  A response to it could never be tested, except, of course, in an invented story.  So maybe that's a theme for a book set in a world where one's private thinking ceases to be secret.  I'm not sure if such a book would be relaxing or brain-pounding.  Whatever, if it exists or ever comes to fruition, happy reading 😊

What a beautiful bird.

A couple of mornings ago, I was enjoying a cup of tea on the balcony watching a flock of beautiful birds, which I discovered were bee-eaters.  They alternated their behaviour between being perched on a large tree in my garden and flying around an adjacent field full of sweet corn and ready for harvesting.  Most species of bee-eater can be found in Africa and Asia but others occur in Southern Europe, Australia and New Guinea.  They predominantly eat flying insects including bees and wasps, which are caught in the air.  Whilst they will eat almost any flying insect, honeybees can comprise a large part of their diet.

In the part of the world where I live, I often hear the sound of gunshot, which I am told is to frighten, not kill, the bee-eaters and that is because beekeeping is an important rural activity in this area.  I don't know how much of a threat the bee-eater is to beekeepers.  Certainly, the bee-eater only stalks bees in flight, not on the hives.  There has been a lot of concern in recent years about the declining bee population and not just because of the obvious product from bees, i.e. honey.  One of every three bites of food eaten worldwide depends on pollinators, especially bees, for a successful harvest.  I have not done extensive research on the causes of the declining bee population, but they include the use of pesticides, notably neonicotinoids, fungicides as well as the spread of viral pathogens and parasitic mites in beehives.

Ironically, recent research by the University of Sussex in the UK suggests that the fad for keeping bees in the cities as a means of preventing bee population decline, actually poses a threat to honeybees.  In London alone, the number of beehives has doubled in the past five years.  Professor Francis Ratnieks from the University of Sussex, summarised the problem as follows:

"Both honeybees and wild bees have been declining.  Although the causes are complex the most important seems to be the loss of flowers and habitat.

If the problem is not enough flowers, increasing the number of hives makes that problem worse.  The honeybee is just one of many insect species which feed on nectar and pollen.  Having a high density of honeybee hives is not only bad for honey bees, but may also affect bumble bees and other species feeding on the same flowers.

If a game park was short of food for elephants, you wouldn't introduce more, so why should we take this approach with bees?"

So what about the threat of the beautiful bee-eaters to the magnificent honeybees?  Beekeepers quite understandably regard bee-eaters and other insectivorous birds as pests, but other branches of agriculture generally do not consider them as their enemies.  In fact, birds that prey on insects are mostly considered to be beneficial for farming because they help in the control of insect pests.  The biggest threat to apiary bees usually occurs  during a period of migration of the birds and two possible solutions that can be adopted by beekeepers are to relocate the apiaries temporarily during that period or to scare (but not kill) the birds with the sound of gunshot.

Let's hope we can continue to live in harmony with bees and bee-eaters, taking precautionary measures where necessary and controlling human bad practices that threaten the natural habitats for the planet's pollinators 😊

It's a great idea!

I have always had a fascination for and admiration of human ingenuity.  From the start of our lives we inherit and benefit from the innovative achievements of those around us and all the generations that preceded us.  Medicine, motor cars, aeroplanes, computers, clothing, food supplies, electricity, gas, solar panels, roads, bridges, monetary systems, televisions, radios,........ - the list goes on and on - are all the result of human ingenuity, intellectual and physical endeavours.  As an engineer, my appreciation of mankind's achievements extends beyond WHAT a product can do for me, to HOW it works.  In fact, I find it difficult to accept the benefits of my man-made surroundings without understanding the workings of the component parts.  As an example, I know many people are quite content to drive their cars without a basic understanding of the internal combustion engine, but that doesn't work for me.  I need to know how it works, its capabilities and limitations.  Now to some readers, my behaviour might seem a bit whacky or even obsessional but I can assure you that when I am in the company of practising engineers (I no longer practise) my inquiring mind, compared with others, seems quite pedestrian.

There are pros and cons of having an inquiring mind.  The main advantage is that when things go wrong, and you understand why they have gone wrong, then you might be able to fix them.  The downside is that it is very easy to become obsessed with the HOW rather than enjoying the WHAT.  So for example, I check the quality and speed of my Internet connection regularly and if the speed reduces significantly, it concerns me and prompts a call to my Internet service provider, even if it is not really unduly affecting my use of the Internet.  But another problem with focussing too much on the HOW rather than the WHAT, is that it can constrain 'blue sky' thinking.  Here's a very recent example.  Yesterday, whilst enjoying breakfast with my wife, we were were discussing some of the topics we wished to raise with a friend who we would be talking to on FaceTime later that morning.  FaceTime calls allow us to have iPad-to-iPad video and audio communications.  It's Apple's answer to Skype.  We call our friend once a week and he updates us on his news from England, whilst we respond with our news from Turkey.  It's informative and a very enjoyable way to spend about an hour each week.  My mind wandered and whilst I was marvelling at what technology was allowing us to do, even though we tend to take it for granted, I mused at what might be possible in the future.  Our virtual meeting only uses two of the five senses - sight (with two-dimensional rather that three-dimensional images) and hearing.  There is no transmission and reception of the remaining three senses - taste, touch and smell.  Now we all know three-dimensional imaging is now possible, but what about taste, touch and smell?  I am not sure that taste and touch could enhance a FaceTime call, so my mind wandered into the area of smell.  My wife sensed that my cogs were ticking and I shared my idea of enhancing video/audio calls with smell, explaining that whilst we might not necessarily want to smell our friend 😄 , topics such as cooking, perfumery, etc, could benefit from the transmission and reception of smell.  It's a great idea!

After breakfast, I decided some Internet research was required.  I Googled SMELL ELECTRONIC TRANSMISSION and then followed 'Digital scent technology' on Wikipedia.  Lo and behold the concept is not new.  In fact Hans Laube invented Smell-O-Vision, a system that released odour during the projection of a film, in the 1950s.  There are now many companies working on the technology and a group of Japanese researchers believe a 3D television with touch and smell will be commercially available by 2020.  So my great idea is by no means novel!  Now because my mind is focussed on the HOW and in this case, the HOW is well on the way to being achieved, I lost my enthusiasm to continue my thought process.  Whereas perhaps I should have parked that particular issue and mused on WHAT might be achievable by, for example, creating a totally inclusive and integrated virtual communication environment.  An environment where there really is no difference between real and virtual, i.e. the geographic divide between families, friends, colleagues, politicians........, disappears.  That's WHAT we want.  It's a great idea!  But don't ask me HOW! 😄